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U.S. Corn Exports Buoyed by Large Supplies
12.09.2024 21:26 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (September 2024), for marketing year 2024/25 (Sep-Aug), U.S. corn exports are forecast at 58.4 million metric tons (tons), the highest volume since 2021/22. Large corn supplies are enhancing U.S. competitiveness, while reduced exportable supplies in other major producers is expected to hamper their outlook. If realized, U.S. exports would be the fourth highest on record. NASS projects the 2024 U.S. corn crop at 385.7 million tons, the second largest on record. A record yield of 11.5 tons/hectare is partially offsetting a decline in harvested area. The bumper 2024 crop is hot on the heels of another record crop in 2023, which left an excess of corn available to the market. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are estimated at 46.0 million tons. Due to this significant carryin, despite a 4-million-ton drop in production for 2024/25, total supplies1 are forecast at 432.0 million tons in 2024/25, the largest ever and the highest volume since 2017/18. Large supplies have weighed on U.S. corn prices since June 30. Expectations of a large U.S. crop have had an outsized pressure on price. In addition, the Grain Stocks report reflected expectations for the largest carryin in several years adding to the pressure. NASS reports prices received by farmers at just $4.24/bushel in July 2024, the lowest since January 2021. With prices at multi-year lows, bargain buying encouraged some slight increases in domestic use. The NASS Grain Crushings report showed 3 percent growth in corn milling, and EIA data during August suggests a rise in corn use for ethanol relative to last year. However, the biggest surge has been in exports. U. S. Census data for June and July and export inspections data for August imply the largest fourth quarter corn exports in 6 years. Export Sales Reporting (ESR) and bids for U.S. corn in export positions at the U. S. Gulf reflect that this rise in demand is being sustained at the outset of the 2024/25 harvest.
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