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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Global orange production for 2018/19 is forecast to surge 6.3 million metric tons

08.08.2019 14:55 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Citrus: World Markets and Trade (July 2019), global orange production for 2018/19 is forecast to surge 6.3 million metric tons (tons) to 54.3 million, the highest level in 8 years, as favorable weather leads to larger crops in the United States and Brazil.

Similarly, fruit for processing is expected to expand on higher production in the United States and Brazil. Consumption is projected higher while fresh exports are down slightly as the gain in production primarily favors processing oranges. Much of the gain in the United States was in Florida where about 95 percent of the oranges go for processing and Brazil where around 70 percent of the oranges go for processing.

U.S. production is estimated to rebound 36 percent to 4.8 million tons due to a return to more normal weather in Florida where production was recovering from 2017/18 crop losses caused by Hurricane Irma. Consumption and fruit for processing are both higher with the larger crop. Exports are lower with most of the rebound in production going to fruit for processing.

Brazil’s production is forecast up 26 percent to 20.2 million tons as favorable weather has resulted in an excellent bloom and fruit set. Fresh orange consumption and oranges for processing are both up with the jump in available fruit. With the rise in oranges for processing, orange juice production is forecast to jump to 1.4 million tons (65 degrees brix).

China’s production is projected down slightly to 7.2 million tons due to unfavorable weather. Consumption is down on lower domestic supplies and imports. South Africa and Egypt are the top two suppliers, accounting for 60 percent of imports.

Egypt’s production is estimated at a record 3.4 million tons, up 10 percent from last year on

expanded area. Exports are up 4 percent to a record 1.6 million tons on greater exportable

supplies. Egypt is the world’s top exporter.

Production in the European Union is estimated up 4 percent to 6.5 million tons on favorable

weather. Oranges for fresh consumption and processing are both higher with the increase in

available supplies while imports are down 3 percent.

Mexico’s production and fruit for processing are both projected to match the 2016/17 record of

4.6 and 2.1 million tons, respectively.

Morocco’s production is forecast at a record 1.2 million tons on favorable weather.

Consumption is estimated at a record on greater supplies while exports are lower. The increase

in production brought marketing challenges. Due to a lack of sufficient and modern

packinghouses and cold-storage facilities, many farmers had to dump their product onto the

market.

South Africa’s production is expected to rise 3 percent to 1.6 million tons. Consumption is flat

while fruit for processing is expected to expand. Exports are forecast at 1.2 million tons and are

expected to account for over 25 percent of global trade. The European Union, China, and Russia

are the country’s top export markets.

Production in Turkey is estimated flat at 1.9 million tons. Consumption is expected to be a

record high as exports are down due to Russia’s rejecting many Turkish shipments in late 2018

and at the beginning of 2019 due to Mediterranean fruit fly and black fir sawyer beetle.

Agro Perspectiva

< Ukrainian 2019 first half potato import 20,800 tons

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08.08.2019

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