China’s Stocks Swell on Production Revisions

09.11.2018 10:40 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Last month, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released revised area, yield, and production

estimates for corn, wheat, and rice from 2007/08 through 2017/18. This month’s Supply and

Demand balance sheets for China incorporate the NBS revisions. Details can be found on the

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Historical Revisions page.

Corn: The NBS revision adds a cumulative 266 million tons to production for the 2007/08–2017/18

period. While just over a half of the additional volume is added to stocks, total domestic

consumption is adjusted to reflect greater use for feed and residual disappearance and fuel ethanol.

The level of stocks rises sharply starting in 2013/14 reflecting government support programs at the

time. Despite large stocks, any potential boost to exports should be minimal as China’s corn is

currently more expensive compared to world levels. Imports remain unchanged.

Wheat: The NBS revision adds a cumulative 20 million tons to production for the 2007/08–2017/18

period. Most of the increase is added to stocks, with only a small addition to feed and residual use.

Revisions were not made to food, seed, and industrial use as per-capita consumption appears to be

relatively stable. China’s stocks are forecast to account for over half of global wheat stocks but are

generally not accessible to world markets.

Rice: The NBS revision adds a cumulative 18 million tons to production for the 2007/08–2017/18

period. Most of the increase is added to stocks as rice is primarily used for food and per-capita

consumption appears to have remained relatively stable. China’s stocks are forecast to account for

more than two-thirds of global stocks, which are now at a record. Despite lower rice and wheat

production in 2018/19, stocks are still forecast to climb, though at a slower expected rate. Auctions

of both rice and wheat stocks have resulted in limited sales from state reserves in contrast to the

rapid pace of sales from corn stocks.

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