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EBRD expecting Ukraine's GDP to fall by 0.5% in 2013
13.05.2013 15:10 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for the second time this year downgraded the forecast for the development of the Ukrainian economy and it is now expecting it to decline by 0.5%, NRCU reports referring to the EBRD updated review of the regional economic outlook. As to the review, the EBRD expects the recovery of Ukraine’s GDP in 2014 by 2.5%.
Also, the bank admits the Ukrainian economy is more than others in the region not protected against the influence of slowdown in the European Union and the Russian Federation. According to the bank experts, in such circumstances some devaluation of the hryvnia could ease the situation. The EBRD believes that the risks to the stable development of the Ukrainian economy remain problem bank loans and a significant dollarization of the financial sector. As reported, in January this year the EBRD downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2013 to 1%, while in October 2012 it estimated it at 2.5%. The Ukrainian economy, according to the State Statistics Service, in 2012 slowed down its growth to 0.2% from 5.2% a year ago. While in the first and second quarters of last year GDP grew by 2.2% and 3% respectively, then in the third and fourth quarters the decline amounted to 1.3% and 2.5% respectively. In the first quarter of 2013, Ukraine’s GDP compared to the first quarter of 2012 fell by 1.3%, while the 2013 national budget is based on the forecast of GDP growth at 3.4%. The International Monetary Fund in mid-April 2013 downgraded the forecast for GDP dynamics in Ukraine in 2013 to zero from 3.5% in October 2012. According to its estimates, the Ukrainian economy in 2014 will grow by 2.8%. The World Bank in early April also downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2013 to 1% from 3.5% and in 2014 from 4% to 3%.
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