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USA. Lower grain production
22.07.2010 11:18 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
U.S. feed grain production in 2010 is expected to be down from last month reflecting lower planted acreage as forecast in the June 30 Acreage report. Feed grain production is projected up from 2009 as planted and harvested area are up from last year for corn, more than offsetting year-to-year reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats. Adjustments are made in 2009/10 use this month to reflect June 1 stocks. The resulting changes lower 2009/10 ending stocks and 2010/11 supplies. Forecast 2010/11 prices for all four feed grains are raised this month, as feed grain ending stocks are projected lower.U.S. corn exports for 2010/11 are decreased based on stronger U.S. prices. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are down slightly more than U.S. stocks, mostly due to reduced barley production prospects. During 2010/11, world coarse grain stocks are projected to decline 5 percent.
The index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2010/11 is expected to be down slightly from the 2009/10 forecast of 91.5 million units. The grain used per GCAU would be 1.61 tons, down from 1.64 tons in 2009/10. In the index components, GCAUs for all types of poultry and hogs are up, while those for the other categories are down slightly, with cattle on feed being down the most.
Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.5 million head on June 1, 2010. The inventory was 1 percent above June 1, 2009. But, current feed use by cattle in feedlots is expected to decline in 2011. Beef production in 2011 is forecast at 25.2 billion pounds, down from 25.8 billion in 2010. In addition, some of the feed needs may be satisfied by increased use of distiller’s spent grains produced by the expanding ethanol industry. With 2010/11 ending stocks projected lower this month, prices are projected higher.
The marketing-year average farm price for 2010/11 is projected at $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range. The 2009/10 marketing-year average price is expected to be $3.50 to $3.60 per bushel.
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