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Rain nurtures hopes for Australian wheat
07.04.2010 12:25 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Good rains have put Australia on course for a rise in wheat production, even though farmers look unlikely to raise plantings much √ if at all.
Rabobank analysts hiked their forecast for the 2010–11 wheat crop in the southern hemisphere’s largest exporter of the grain by 1.8m tonnes to 21.8m tonnes, putting it in line with last year’s harvest.
The revision came as Australian Crop Forecasters raised its forecast by 800,000 tonnes to 22.5m tonnes, a figure which would represent a five-year high.
Both groups cited the rains which have blessed much of the country since Christmas, and are expected to continue ahead of plantings, which start later this month.
«East coast winter cropping prospects look outstanding,» Rabobank said, adding that farms in Queensland and parts of New South Wales were enjoying among their best conditions of the past 20 years.
Wheat area, which the bank had forecast would drop by some 800,000 hectares, looked now like coming in only «slightly below» last year’s level.
The report acknowledged that Western Australia, the country’s top grain producing state, had yet to receive «soaking» rains, adding that it was yet «early days» in forecasting a crop which would not be harvested until late 2010.
Separately, Scott Briggs, a commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said he did not foresee «any huge cutbacks» in Western Australian plantings.
However, both Rabobank and ACF acknowledged the appeal of other crops, given weak wheat prices.
ACF analyst Gavin Warburton forecast that Australia’s canola production may rise by 5%.
Rabobank stressed the appeal of pulses and cotton, expecting a «marginal» decline in canola sowings.
«This trend away from rapeseed is hardly surprising,» the bank said.
«Recent gross margin estimates put the rapeseed margin at the lowest across all rainfall districts, relative to that of other grains and legumes.»
And given South America’s strong harvest of soybeans, the rival oilseed, it was «difficult to imagine a sustainable rally in Australian rapeseed prices until at least mid-2011.»
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