Ukrainian Grain Market

AGRO PERSPECTIVE «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market » May 5, 2011`17`(322)

As earlier reported, this year Apr 27 Cabinet had adopted decision to cancel Ukrainian maize grains export quoting regime; Cabinet Decree ¹ 463 from Apr 27/11 “About Bringing Changes into Cabinet Decree ¹ 938 from Oct 04/10” had been signed by Premier Myckola Azarov.

As a result, Ukrainian domestic maize market has significantly activated within this week (though domestic wheat/barley sectors remained inactive).    
Within reporting week almost all big trade companies (save for those whose management decided to take vacations within May holidays period) have started maize purchasing; big companies Kernel, Khlib Investbud, Soufflet, Vitalmar Agro, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Serna and others have entered market. 
In central regions, within this week maize purchase prices were declared UAH1,950–1,970 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator); however, in fact trade companies were ready to pay even UAH1,970–2,030 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions).                                    
It is to be admitted, within reporting week all Ukrainian regions agrarians have felt that market has got bull trend and therefore remained reluctant to sell their maize reserves.
Big maize lots owners were eager to start exporting their goods and so fixed US$315 per MT (CPT port) maize export price; however, traders were in no hurry to declare US$ purchase prices as Ukrainian ports terminals simply couldn’t confirm maize acceptance until Decree on maize grains export quoting regime cancelling is officially published. 
In meanwhile, maize significant part is now kept in agricultural producers warehouses as they so far prefer to sell maize to middlemen which, in their turn, ship it to ports and then resell it to exporters at UAH2,150–2,200 per MT (CPT port).
Traders admit within this week some potential maize sellers were busy in springtime field works, while some just continued celebrating Day of Working People International Solidarity (which has then gradually changed into Victory Day holiday),  — so this week maize sales remained almost zero low.     

EXPORT

• Barley 

As previously, within this week feed barley market trade activity remained rather slack due to processors low demand; it is to be mentioned, no trader made feed barley purchases.
Within reporting week feed barley market purchase prices fluctuated within UAH1,750–1,900 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on lots/regions).
Within this week feed barley US$ purchase prices were US$275–285 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports: Pivdenniy, Illichivsk, Odesa).

•  
• Wheat     

Within reporting week traders didn’t make any feed wheat purchases. As of this week, feed wheat market offer prices ranged within UAH1,750–1,900 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions).                                    
Within this week feed wheat FOB basis export prices ranged within US$315–325 per MT. 
As of this week, domestic market 3 and 2 classes food wheat prices remained unchanged as of last week, correspondingly UAH1,900–2,050 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator) and UAH1,950–2,100 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator); at same time, 3 and 2 classes food wheat export prices (if global market prices conjuncture is taken into account) were correspondingly US$350–375 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports) and US$340–350 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports, depending on protein content). 

Maize 

Within reporting week feed maize market purchase prices have somewhat risen against previous week; prices depended on seller status (middleman or producer), shipments regions and contract conditions, — UAH1,930–2,100 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator). It is to be admitted, traders were ready to pay UAH2,150–2,200 per MT for big lots in ports.
As of this week, feed maize export prices fluctuated within US$312–325 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).

*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%
***- DAF — delivered at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border

Processors Activity  

Within reporting week part processors have suspended functioning due to May holidays, so Ukrainian grains market (already passive/slack) activity has fallen to zero low.
 In meanwhile, flour millers admit their grains resources are so far sufficient to assure  current flour output rates (when present flour low demand is taken into account). Besides, it is to be admitted, grains holders are quite reluctant to sell their grains cheap and therefore continue dictating rather high offer prices.  

Average purchase prices for food grains (ÑÐÒ processing plant), UAH/ò
Region	04.05.11		27.04.11		April 2011 average	March 2011 average	February 2011 average
	Min	Max	Min	Max
2nd class wheat*
Western	2080	2400	2080	2400	2245	2200	1945
Northern	2100	2300	2100	2300	2215	2180	1975
Central	2080	2300	2080	2300	2195	2170	1985
Southern	2080	2260	2080	2260	2180	2160	2005
Eastern	2080	2300	2080	2300	2195	2180	2000
3rd class wheat**
Western	2030	2250	2030	2250	2145	2110	1880
Northern	2030	2220	2030	2220	2135	2110	1910
Central	2020	2220	2020	2220	2130	2110	1925
Southern	1950	2200	1950	2200	2075	2090	1940
Eastern	2000	2220	2000	2220	2120	2110	1935

*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%

23.05.2011